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Understanding the Law of Large Numbers in Supply Chain

A vibrant, multicolored 3D wave-like graph with peaks and valleys, representing data points on a grid with a dark gradient background. The colors range from yellow, green, blue, to red, creating a dynamic, abstract visualization.

In mathematics, the law of large numbers is a fundamental principle of probability theory, which states that when a random experiment is repeated many times, the average of the results obtained converges toward the theoretical mean value (the mathematical expectation) of this experiment. Let’s keep it simple. If you roll a die once, you’ll get … Read more

Breaking the Forecast Addiction in Supply Chain Planning

Person in a suit sitting at a poker table with their head in their hands appearing frustrated.

During the Paris 2024 Olympic Games, all kinds of predictions were made about the medal chances of different countries. Some have even developed algorithms, predictive models and business planning tools, which of course have been wildly wrong. Numerous sporting competitions are scrutinized by bookmakers and are the subject of bets. Every major election is the … Read more

Decoupling Points and the Art of Making Pizza

Two fresh pizzas on wooden boards, one with basil and cheese, and the other with various toppings, surrounded by ingredients.

Even if they don’t know it, the notion of a decoupling point is very familiar to your favorite pizza chef. Last week I made a call to the excellent pizzeria near my house to order two pizzas. But wait a minute. There’s a menu of 25 different pizzas, that’s a lot of different ingredients, and … Read more

Simplifying ERP Complexity for Better Supply Chain Control

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ERP systems are not renowned for their simplicity. With the overwhelming ERP system complexity, there is a lot of technical data and parameters to maintain. Planners are often lost or dependent on data maintained by other remote teams. They have no way of ensuring that the system’s recommendations are correct. Usually, they end up calculating … Read more